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Near-surface measurements of meridional velocity suggest that wind forcing excites equatorial waves in the biweekly band in the Indian Ocean. The characteristics of these waves in the deep ocean are poorly constrained, and it is unclear how well models capture the deep variability. In this work, biweekly temperature variations in a few low vertical modes in the deep east Indian Ocean are observed using seismically generated sound waves. These so-called T waves are generated by earthquakes off Sumatra and received by a hydrophone station off Diego Garcia. Changes in their travel times reflect temperature-induced sound speed variations in the intervening ocean. Regression analysis indicates that these variations are caused by westward-propagating Yanai waves. A comparison between T-wave data and model output shows generally good consistency in biweekly variations dominated by the first three vertical modes, although the biweekly variance differs by up to a factor of 2 between the data and the models. A similar degree of discrepancy appears in the comparison between the models and deep mooring measurements. These results highlight the potential of using T-wave data to study biweekly Yanai waves in the deep equatorial ocean and to calibrate numerical simulations of the variability they cause. 

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides most of the global seasonal climate forecast skill, yet, quantifying the sources of skilful predictions is a long-standing challenge. Different sources of predictability affect ENSO evolution, leading to distinct global effects. Artificial intelligence forecasts offer promising advancements but linking their skill to specific physical processes is not yet possible, limiting our understanding of the dynamics underpinning the advancements. Here we show that an extended nonlinear recharge oscillator (XRO) model shows skilful ENSO forecasts at lead times up to 16–18 months, better than global climate models and comparable to the most skilful artificial intelligence forecasts. The XRO parsimoniously incorporates the core ENSO dynamics and ENSO’s seasonally modulated interactions with other modes of variability in the global oceans. The intrinsic enhancement of ENSO’s long-range forecast skill is traceable to the initial conditions of other climate modes by means of their memory and interactions with ENSO and is quantifiable in terms of these modes’ contributions to ENSO amplitude. Reforecasts using the XRO trained on climate model output show that reduced biases in both model ENSO dynamics and in climate mode interactions can lead to more skilful ENSO forecasts. The XRO framework’s holistic treatment of ENSO’s global multi-timescale interactions highlights promising targets for improving ENSO simulations and forecasts. 

Global climate is regulated by the ocean, which stores, releases, and transports large amounts of mass, heat, carbon, and oxygen. Understanding, monitoring, and predicting the exchanges of these quantities across the ocean’s surface, their interactions with the atmosphere, and their horizontal and vertical pathways through the global oceans, are key for advancing fundamental knowledge and improving forecasts and longer-term projections of climate, weather, and ocean ecosystems. The existing global observing system provides immense value for science and society in this regard by supplying the data essential for these advancements. The tropical ocean observing system in particular has been developed over decades, motivated in large part by the far-reaching and complex global impacts of tropical climate variability and change. However, changes in observing needs and priorities, new challenges associated with climate change, and advances in observing technologies demand periodic evaluations to ensure that stakeholders’ needs are met. Previous reviews and assessments of the tropical observing system have focused separately on individual basins and their associated observing needs. Here we provide a broader perspective covering the tropical observing system as a whole. Common gaps, needs, and recommendations are identified, and interbasin differences driven by socioeconomic disparities are discussed, building on the concept of an integrated pantropical observing system. Finally, recommendations for improved observations of tropical basin interactions, through oceanic and atmospheric pathways, are presented, emphasizing the benefits that can be achieved through closer interbasin coordination and international partnerships. 

The global oceans absorb most of the surplus heat from anthropogenic warming, but it is unclear how this heat accumulation will affect the Earth’s climate under climate mitigation scenarios. Here we show that this stored heat will be released at a much slower rate than its accumulation, resulting in a robust pattern of surface ocean warming and consequent regional precipitation. The surface ocean warming is pronounced over subpolar to polar regions and the equatorial eastern Pacific where oceans are weakly stratified to allow vigorous heat release from the deep ocean to the surface layer. We also demonstrate that this ocean warming pattern largely explains changes in the precipitation pattern, including the southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and more moistening in high latitudes. This study suggests that deep ocean warming may hinder climate recovery in some regions, even if carbon neutrality or net negative emissions are successfully achieved. 

Abstract In July 1929, Dr Friedrich Ritter and Dore Strauch left their spouses and the turmoil of post–World War I Germany for the remote, uninhabited, and rugged volcanic island of Floreana in the Galapagos archipelago. Their dream was to live self-sufficiently in an idyllic tropical setting unspoiled by civilization. Wealthy yachters stopping at Floreana in the early 1930s reported on the couple’s pioneering enterprise to the outside world. The news created a sensation that subsequently attracted other settlers, including a mysterious Viennese faux baroness who quickly sowed discord on the island. Not all the participants in this drama survived though. A prolonged drought gripped the island from 1933 to 1935 leading to food shortages that ultimately claimed the life of Dr. Ritter, a vegetarian who unwittingly ate tainted chicken out of desperation. The bizarre intrigues and struggles to endure on Floreana were chronicled in Dore Strauch’s 1936 memoir Satan Came to Eden and a 2013 Hollywood documentary based on it. A story that has not been told is how an extended period of cold La Niña conditions in 1933–35 led to the drought that caused the food shortages. We use an atmospheric reanalysis and other data sources to describe these cold conditions and how they affected the human drama that unfolded on Floreana Island. The protracted La Niña impacted other parts of the globe and in particular was a major influence on development of the 1930s Dust Bowl in the southern plains of the United States. 

Abstract Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight of these occurring after 1970. The two types of multiyear La Niña events over this time period followed either a super El Niño or a central Pacific El Niño. We find that multiyear La Niña events differ from single-year La Niñas by a prominent onset rate, which is rooted in the western Pacific warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for the central Pacific multiyear La Niña events type and thermocline feedback for the super El Niño multiyear La Niña events type. The results from large ensemble climate simulations support the observed multiyear La Niña events–western Pacific warming link. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific. 

Abstract Understanding the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for climate prediction. By analyzing observational data and performing Indian and Pacific Ocean pacemaker experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, we find that a positive IOD (pIOD) can favor both cold and warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, in contrast to the previously identified pIOD-El Niño connection. The diverse impacts of the pIOD on ENSO are related to SSTA in the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR; 60°E-85°E and 7°S-15°S) as part of the warm pole of the pIOD. Specifically, a pIOD with SCTR warming can cause warm SSTA in the southeast Indian Ocean, which induces La Niña-like conditions in the tropical Pacific through interbasin interaction processes associated with a recently identified climate phenomenon dubbed the “Warm Pool Dipole”. This study identifies a new pIOD-ENSO relationship and examines the associated mechanisms.